Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
DoD Small-Business Contract Obligation Share FY2026
What will USAspending API v2 first-print registered-query snapshot show for the Department of Defense FY2026 small-business share of prime-contract obligations, using award type codes A/B/C/D, awarding toptier agency Department of Defense, grouped by fiscal year, with numerator recipient_type_names=[small_business] and denominator without recipient type restriction?
current forecast · 80% CI20.2%
18.6%20.2%21.8%
history:FY2025 GSA all-prime DoD small-business share, computed from fetched dollars: 19.79%FY2024 GSA all-prime DoD small-business share, computed from fetched dollars: 20.81%FY2020 DoD historical prime-contract small-business share, non-comparable regime check: 33.4%FY2019 DoD historical prime-contract small-business share, non-comparable regime check: 38.6%FY2018 DoD historical prime-contract small-business share, non-comparable regime check: 33.5%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-08-07T19:28:47Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 7, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- usaspending.dod.small_business_contract_obligation_share.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot
Key drivers
- Recent all-prime DoD small-business share near 20 percent
- FY2025 small-business dollars rose but total non-small DoD obligations also rose
- DoD/SBA small-business policy goals support persistence rather than collapse
- Defense procurement mix can swing with large weapons and services obligations
- USAspending registered query differs from SBA eligible-dollar scorecard denominator
Resolution
- source
- USAspending API v2 advanced search spending_over_time registered query snapshot
- expected
- October 22, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first registered-query snapshot value for FY2026 from USAspending API v2 /api/v2/search/spending_over_time/ using the registered transform: percent = 100 * aggregated_amount for DoD prime-contract transactions with recipient_type_names=[small_business] divided by aggregated_amount for the same DoD prime-contract transactions without a recipient type filter. Use award_type_codes A, B, C, and D; awarding toptier agency Department of Defense; group=fiscal_year; spending_level=transactions; fiscalYear=2026. Use the registered FY2026 snapshot as of the bounded window ending 2026-10-22, not later USAspending revisions. Round to the agency/API displayed precision available in the resolver artifact. Do not revise after the first registered snapshot.
- Data point
- usaspending.dod.small_business_contract_obligation_share.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.