Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US Core PCE MoM, Aug 2026
What will the first-print seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in the BEA PCE price index excluding food and energy be for August 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI+0.3%
+0.1%+0.3%+0.4%
history:2026-06 core PCE MoM SA first print: +0.1%2026-05 core PCE MoM SA first print: +0.3%2026-04 core PCE MoM SA first print: +0.3%2026-03 core PCE MoM SA first print: +0.3%2026-02 core PCE MoM SA first print: +0.4%2026-01 core PCE MoM SA first print: +0.4%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-08-11T13:13:19Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 11, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-08
Key drivers
- recent core PCE first prints slowed from 0.3-0.4 to 0.1 in June
- June core CPI was flat while shelter rose only 0.1
- two-month horizon leaves room for July and August services rebound
- September 30 BEA annual update raises first-print process risk but not the resolver
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026
- expected
- September 30, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first official BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for August 2026, using the seasonally adjusted percent change from the preceding month for the PCE price index excluding food and energy. Use the initially published one-decimal percent value for the first print; ignore later revisions or annual-update back revisions after that first print.
- Data point
- us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-08
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.