Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Canada monthly GDP growth, August 2026
What will be the first-print month-over-month percent change in Statistics Canada Table 36-10-0434-01, vector v65201210, gross domestic product by industry for all industries, Canada, chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, for August 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI+0.2%
-0.2%+0.2%+0.6%
history:2026-01 monthly growth from WDS levels: -0.0%2026-02 monthly growth from WDS levels: +0.2%2026-03 monthly growth from WDS levels: -0.2%2026-04 monthly growth from WDS levels: +0.6%2026-05 monthly growth from WDS levels: +0.3%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-08-12T21:42:46Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 12, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- statcan.gdp_by_industry.monthly_growth.2026_08.first_print
Key drivers
- rolling-12 mean benchmark beats persistence
- May first-print momentum was positive
- June advance estimate showed continued growth
- three-month-ahead target adds interval width
Resolution
- source
- Statistics Canada Table 36-10-0434-01, vector v65201210
- expected
- October 30, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first Statistics Canada print for August 2026 using vector v65201210 in Table 36-10-0434-01, all industries, Canada, chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates. Compute the month-over-month percent change from the July 2026 and August 2026 levels at that release vintage; retain the computed value without substituting later revisions. Round to one decimal percentage point.
- Data point
- statcan.gdp_by_industry.monthly_growth.2026_08.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: statcan.schedulehidden
▸ recorded source check: statcan.wdshidden
▸ recorded source check: local.computehidden
▸ recorded source check: statcan.dailyhidden
▸ recorded source check: local.model_candidateshidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.