Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Canada EI regular beneficiaries, August 2026
Statistics Canada Table 14-10-0011-01, vector v64549350: Employment Insurance regular beneficiaries, Canada, seasonally adjusted, August 2026 reference month, first print, converted from persons to thousands.
current forecast · 80% CI538k
520k538k556k
history:May 2026 regular EI beneficiaries, Canada SA, thousands: 544kApr 2026 regular EI beneficiaries, Canada SA, thousands: 544kMar 2026 regular EI beneficiaries, Canada SA, thousands: 550kFeb 2026 regular EI beneficiaries, Canada SA, thousands: 550kJan 2026 regular EI beneficiaries, Canada SA, thousands: 559k
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-08-12T21:49:55Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 12, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.august_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- Last-print persistence is 543.69 thousand
- Recent EI series momentum has been flat to down since January
- July LFS unemployment rate fell to 6.4%
- Three-month horizon widens the persistence interval
- Ledger date retained despite calendar-label extraction limits
Resolution
- source
- Statistics Canada, Employment Insurance Statistics
- expected
- October 21, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first Statistics Canada publication for Table 14-10-0011-01, vector v64549350, Canada regular Employment Insurance beneficiaries, seasonally adjusted, August 2026 reference month. Use the first print only, ignore later table revisions, read the published value in persons, multiply by 0.001 to express in thousands, and round to two decimals in thousands. The canonical registered target fixes resolutionDate at 2026-10-21; this forecast preserves the supplied ledger contract.
- Data point
- statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.august_2026.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
§
▸ recorded source check: statcan.wdshidden
▸ recorded source check: statcan.calendarhidden
▸ recorded source check: statcan.dailyhidden
▸ recorded source check: thesis.specshidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.